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COASTALWATCH Swell Analysis

Issued by Ben Macartney  for Coastalwatch, Monday, 11 March 2019

There’s definitely some surf on the long-term horizon, but quantifying it is looking difficult owing to varying model guidance at this early stage. 
 
Looking at the weekend, some recent model runs have a high pressure ridge rebuilding over the Tasman Sea this weekend, setting up a modest rise in ESE windswell into the 2 to 3ft range on Saturday and Sunday; albeit under fresh onshore winds from the same direction. In contrast, GFS has a frontal low moving below Tasmania later this week setting up a respectable S pulse in the 2 to 4ft range on Saturday, easing again Sunday. 
 
This may be followed by the development of a sizeable, albeit relatively weak low pressure system west of New Zealand’s South Island this weekend; speculatively giving rise to a new round of SSE/SE swell in the 2 to 4ft range on Monday 18th and Tuesday 19th March. For now there are clear differences among the key models surrounding how this will evolve.
 
Looking further out, there are some indications we’ll see a long-range easterly swell developing in response to a tropical depression deepening northeast of NZ early to mid next week; setting up a long, albeit moderate easterly fetch in conjunction with a sub-tropical high over the Southwest Pacific. This hints at a modest building trend in Easterly swell into Thursday 21st and Friday 22nd, but specifics on this will become clearer as the week progresses.
 

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